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Randy's Recap- October 4th

Oct 04, 2019

Corn and soybeans found some good news from the Quarterly Stocks report on September 30th and gave the markets a good boost for the week. The following is the data from the report:
In summary the report shows a decrease in the 2018 crop by 300 million bushels for corn and a decrease 67 million bushels for soybeans. That should change the carry in number for the 2019 crop in the next WASDE update on October 10th. Any further yield reductions on top of this quarter stocks reduction should provide some upside potential for corn and soybeans. 

Soybeans retracements show resistance around the $9.30 level and a summer high of $9.70 for Nov 19 contract.   Corn retracements show resistance at the $3.98, $4.12, and $4.26 level and a summer high of $4.73 for Dec 19 Corn.  It very possible we may have put in the harvest lows for corn at $3.52 Dec 19 and soybeans at $8.51 Nov 19.  

Harvest data has started to come in with plenty of variability in both the early corn and soybeans. Some yield data is better that last year, some worse. One would assume as we get to the later planted crop harvest, the yield would reduce considerably. The harvest data will take time to digest and rallies may come later in the year or early into next year.  

Weather in the U.S. remains wet for much of the harvest with improving conditions on the 6-10 day and 8-14-day forecast. South America’s planting season has begun, and conditions remain very hot and dry which delays plantings. Farmers will wait for the rains to plant. This slow start could also be positive the market in the coming weeks.

China has also made some good will purchases in soybeans and white wheat ahead of trade talks that resume this month.  

Soybeans and corn harvest will crank up rapidly in the next weeks.  A plan that includes cash sales, basis fixed contracts, commercial or on farm storage should be explored.

Please call with questions on a plan that is right for your farm. Any of our merchandisers would be glad to help with a plan and discuss harvest options. 

Have a safe harvest ahead and as always Ride the Grain Train.

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