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Randy's Recap- June 28th

Jun 28, 2019

WOW!!!!   A crazy planted acreage report from USDA to finish the week.   For the week, corn dropped 22 cents, soybeans were off 4 cents, and wheat finished up 11 cents.

USDA’s June Crop planted acres numbers came in as follows:
Million Acres Planted:             June 28            March 29         Last Year
Corn                                        91.7                 92.97               89.12
Soybeans                                 80.0                 84.6                 89.19
Wheat                                     45.6                 45.8                 47.8    
Spring Wheat                          12.4                 12.83               13.2

It has been reported that the USDA will resurvey almost every corn and soybean state on acres planted to be released in August.  Can we believe the numbers?  The Quarterly stocks report was neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat.   The acre planted numbers ruled the markets on Friday. 

Initial crop ratings for the corn and soybean crops are at 10-year lows for the good to excellent(G/E) condition with ratings in corn at 56% G/E compared to last year at 77%.  Soybeans were rated 54% G/E compared to last year at 73%.  The late planting and the less than perfect crop in the ground set up a great potential for the markets to move higher.  I am sure it will take time for the story with this crop to unfold as in most late planted year the highs came in at harvest or after harvest.   Spring wheat condition is very good at 75% good to excellent and getting the cooler temps that should help make this crop.  

Trump is to meet with China’s president Xi Jinping and many others during the G-20 summit on the trade issues.  The trade watch continues and hopefully something gets done soon. 

One point to keep in mind with this market is that it feels bullish with late planting, preventative plant, and poor crop condition ratings however, South American has record production to offset some of our production lost for both corn and soybeans.  The South American production could keep the market somewhat in check and prevent a blow off top in both corn and soybeans. 

Volatile markets provide great opportunities and those opportunities become reality when sales are executed.  Should be a fun ride to the finish for this year crop both for production and making sales.

USDA Reports Calendar:  
July 11:  World and U.S. Supply and Demand Update.
Have a great Independence Day!  As always, Ride the Grain Train.

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