Randy's Recap- September 13th

The September WASDE report was released on September 12 at 11 AM. Supply and Demand Balance sheets were as follows:



Overall the reports on mostly neutral on all commodities.  The soybean carry-out at 640 million bushels is probably the most bullish of the report.

The big news for the week was that China and the U.S. will continue talks in October and as good will gestures tariffs by both sides were reduced for short term on some products.   China did purchase maybe up to ten cargos of soybeans which boosted soybean futures 30 cents in two days.   The basis also firmed 15 cents and is now at harvest delivery of $-1.25.  If follow thru continues next week we could see the bean market rally to the $9.20 to $9.30 area.   Have a plan in mind for the soybeans.   Basis fixed beans allows for an advances and priced beans brings home the money. 

The next eight weeks will provide plenty of volatility to the market as we have a long way to go on this crop.   In past few years the harvest lows came in late August or early September.  Let hope we have seen the lows for this year’s market, and we move forward from here.   My guess is that the market will look for real harvest data to verify the crop.   If it does not meet USDA expectations, then we could see a rally all the way to the final crop production report in January 2020.  Revise those plans and make sales when profitable.  

Have a great week!  As always, Ride the Grain Train.