Randy's Recap- August 16th

Aug 16, 2019

The grain markets took a big hit this week as USDA and FSA released reports.  The long-awaited revision for planted acres dashed away hopes of revisiting highs in the market that were set in June. The corn went down 46 cents, soybeans dropped 21 cents and wheat retreated 18 cents. Poor sales to the PNW allowed basis to drop (widen) as well. 

The August WASDE reported corn acres at 90 million planted, 82 million harvested with the average yield at 169.5 bushels per acre.  Corn carryout increased to 2.18 billion bushels up 171 million bushels from last month.   Soybeans reported 76.7 million acres planted with an average yield of 48.5. Soybean carryout dropped 40 million bushels leaving the carryout at 755 million bushels. Wheat had minor changes and carryout is just over 1 billion bushels. Plenty of grains left in the United States.  

FSA reported preventative plant (PP) acres thru August 1 to include 11.2 million acres for corn, 4.3 million for soybeans and 2.2 million acres for wheat. All preventative plant acres are at 19.2 million acres and updates to be released monthly as counties complete acreage signup.  

The report locked the market limit down for corn and Monday which was caused by long large spec fund liquidation. Follow thru continued on Tuesday with the market finding some support later in the week.  
ProFarmer’s Corn and Soybean tour starts on Monday, August 19 and final tour results will be announced next Thursday.  Look at the potential they see in yields for this year’s crop and compare that to the August WASDE.   Can that move the market?

Sometimes it is best to just shut down the market chatter and focus on what you can control. Volatility provides opportunity on both the high and low sides of the market. Profit is only realized when the sales is made.   Revise those plans and get those sales made on the next opportunity.
Have a great week!  As always, Ride the Grain Train.

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