Randy's Recap- August 9th

Aug 09, 2019

The grain markets were mixed on the week. Corn was up 8 cents, soybean up 24 cents and wheat was down 4 cents. Everyone is waiting with anticipation for Monday’s USDA WASDE report at 11 am. The outlook for dryer weather in the 8-14-day forecasts and fund positioning before the report gave us a slight tick up this week. 

The August 12th WASDE report will resurvey acres and provide any updates from USDA as to possible acre, yield, and carryout changes from the July estimates. The average trade guess for corn acres is 89.99 million acres, a yield of 164.9 and production at 13.19 billion bushels. Soybean acres are estimated to fall at 81 million acres with a yield of 47.6 and production of 3.8 billion bushels. Any numbers less than the estimates should place a bullish tone in the market. FSA is also going to release a planted acre update at the same time as the WASDE at 11am.

Last week Trump tweeted that tariffs will be added to 300 billion more China products at 10% starting September 1.The reason for the increase was due to lack of purchasing U.S. agricultural commodities. The market reacted sharply lower after the tweet. China countered Trump last Sunday evening stating they would stop the purchase of any ag commodities.Market was sharply lower on the open Monday. More trade banter this week and again no resolution.

The report on Monday could cause some volatile short-term price swings in the markets. Placing good-till-cancel orders is a good way to get some pricing targets hit when the market is moving rapidly.  

Storage on Priced Later grain started August 1st. Any September Corn and Wheat basis fixed contracts need to be priced out by August 26th or rolled forward. Have a plan to get old crop priced on any rally higher in the market. 

USDA Reports Calendar:  
August 12:  World and U.S. Supply and Demand Update and Acre Resurvey.
Have a great week!  As always, Ride the Grain Train.

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