Randy's Recap- July 12th

Jul 12, 2019

The grain market finished the week very strong with corn breaking  $4.00 cash moving 16 cents higher on the week.  Soybeans moved 36 cents higher and wheat finished up 11 cents.  Most of the market move was opposite of the bearish supply and demand report with more concern over the forecast for hot dry weather.

The July WASDE report came out Thursday, July 11 with USDA changing acres to match the June 29 planted acre survey.   That puts corn acres at 91.7 million acres and soybeans at 80.5 million acres.   I am guessing the market did not believe those numbers and the larger corn carryout (1.6 to 2.0 billion bushels) and corn traded 9 cents higher and beans carryout dropped 250 million bushels and 4 cents higher for the day.   Wheat was bullish off the report as world wheat numbers dropped along with lower U.S. numbers to help lower the large supply of wheat.  Wheat traded 12 cents higher on the day.  The USDA will still resurvey almost every corn and soybean state on acres planted to be released in August.    

Crop ratings for the corn and soybean crops are still at 10-year lows for the good to excellent(G/E) condition.  Concerns are about immature crops and now extend hot and dry conditions has the marketing questioning USDA’s supply and demand report. 

China and the U.S. meeting by phone conversations this week with hopes we can get some more movement toward a trade deal.  China may buy additional agriculture products in good faith to keep talks moving in the right direction.  

The corn market is within 14 cents of the high put in earlier this year with Dec 19 corn hitting $4.73.  Volatile markets provide great opportunities and those opportunities become reality when sales are executed.  Acres times yield equals total production and that is the important number at the harvest finish line. 

USDA Reports Calendar:  
August 12:  World and U.S. Supply and Demand Update and Acre Resurvey.
Have a great week!  As always, Ride the Grain Train.

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