Randy's Recap- June 21st

Jun 21, 2019

The planting delays have been unprecedented in the United States this year.   Actual planted acres will be a big question mark going forward.  Crop condition also remains in question as a big portion of the crop was planted late and that could mean further yield reductions to USDA projections. For the week, in a ragged and choppy market the corn fell 10 cents, soybeans bumped up 4 cents, and wheat lost 25 cents.

Every Monday’s USDA crop progress report has provided information on the planting progress, emergence, and crop condition.  As of last Monday, we still had over 6 million acres of corn to plant and around 20 million acres of soybeans.  That is a lot of crop still to be planted way past the optimum planting period.   Many models show potential 20% yield reduction on the late planted crops.   The story on this year’s crops gets very interesting with acres, condition, and final yield.   The market will be volatile so have a plan in mind.  Take risk off where necessary and leave the upside open if possible. 

The spring wheat is looking very good and rain is projected to hit North Dakota and the Canada prairies in the next week to help with some dry conditions.  The cool weather has also favored the wheat development.   Russia, Ukraine, Europe and Australia all are under some droughty conditions.   The HRW wheat has been exceptionally wet over the last 30 days as the harvest has started.   This could set up some quality issues for the HRW wheat crop.  More to come as the harvest moves north.

Trump is planning to meet with China’s president Xi Jinping during the G-20 summit on the trade issues.   Mexico-Canada USMCA agreement is approved in Mexico but no action by the U.S. Congress.   The trade war rages on but with less interest as the weather market has gained all the attention. 

USDA and the feds will unveil more about MFP, the disaster bill, and newly revised date to graze or hay preventative plant acres for November 1 to September 1. 

Exports sales have been weak the last few weeks for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  We will ration demand on corn.  Large projected carryout for U.S. and world soybeans and wheat may cap a big rally to the upside. 
Volatile markets provide great opportunities and those opportunities become reality when sales are executed.

USDA Reports Calendar:  
June 28:  Quarterly stocks and Planted acre update. 
July 11:  World and U.S. Supply and Demand Update.
We will have marketing meetings next week in Mahnomen, Beltrami, and Ulen.  Everyone is welcome to attend.     As always, Ride the Grain Train and have a great week.

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